BitMine (BMNR) crashed 22.7% this week. The price dropped below $26 for the first time in months.
But the charts show something interesting happening underneath. Large buyers are returning. Plus, Tom Lee’s bold Ethereum prediction could lift BMNR along with it. So is this just another dead bounce, or the start of something bigger?
The answer depends on one critical level.
The Buying Signal That Actually Matters
Moving averages tell a grim story right now. The 20-day EMA crossed below the 100-day back on November 14. That crossover triggered the recent selloff. Now the 50-day EMA is closing in on the 100-day. If that second bearish cross completes, more downside follows.
Yet something curious shows up in the volume data. On-Balance Volume (OBV) tracks real buying versus selling pressure. Between August 4 and November 21, BMNR made a fresh lower low. But OBV made a higher low during that same period.
That’s a bullish divergence. It means real buyers accumulated shares while the price kept falling. This creates space for a rebound even when the trend looks weak.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) confirms the same pattern. CMF also made a higher low over the same timeframe. Moreover, it just broke above its falling trendline. That break usually signals large wallets stepping back in.
Between November 20 and 21, the price made another lower low while CMF flashed yet another higher low. Another bullish divergence. These signals matter more for BMNR than most stocks. Tom Lee pointed out that when institutions build large BMNR positions, that capital gets used to buy Ethereum.
So rising CMF hints at two things: big buyers accumulating BMNR and potential ETH demand returning through BMNR exposure. That could lift the stock price too.
Tom Lee’s Ethereum Call Changes Everything
Short-term technicals support a rebound attempt. But the move hinges on what happens next with Ethereum. BMNR and ETH carry a 0.47 correlation. They move in the same direction at a moderate rate.
When ETH stabilizes or rises, BMNR usually follows. When ETH weakens, BMNR struggles to hold any bounce. This matters because Tom Lee already predicted ETH will hit $7,000. If that prediction holds even marginally, BMNR price could attempt a serious bounce.
The first resistance sits at $32.58. Clearing this level with CMF still rising, possibly above the zero line, would confirm the rebound. That opens room toward $36.88. If ETH picks up momentum at the same time, the move can extend toward $43.82.
That’s the larger retracement zone tied to the last breakdown. This is where the $7,000 ETH outlook becomes relevant. Only an ETH recovery can turn BMNR from a rebound into a trend.
The Risk That Could Kill the Rally
The downside risk remains real. If BMNR loses $25.63, the next support stands near $20.69. That’s almost 20% lower. That drop lines up with previous corrections triggered by EMA crossovers.
The same risk sits in front of the stock now as the 50-day EMA closes in on the 100-day. If that crossover completes while ETH stays weak, the bounce fades. The downtrend continues.
This is the key test. BMNR must reclaim $32.58 with improving CMF and at least some ETH stability. Without that, the rebound remains temporary. The $20.69 level stays in play.
Why This Bounce Could Actually Work
The setup looks better than most dead-cat bounces. Large buyers are accumulating. CMF broke its downtrend. OBV shows consistent buying underneath. Plus, BMNR is still up more than 160% over the past six months despite this week’s crash.
Tom Lee’s ETH call adds credibility to the bullish case. But remember that BMNR holders need ETH to cooperate. If ETH breaks higher, BMNR likely follows through $32.58 and beyond. If ETH stalls, BMNR probably tests $20.69 instead.
The technical signals are there. The correlation is clear. The test ahead is simple: clear $32.58 or fail trying. Everything else depends on whether Ethereum can deliver on Lee’s prediction.