Ethena’s ENA token jumped 10% in 24 hours. Sounds promising. But large holders just sold nearly 100 million tokens worth $28 million.
That disconnect tells you everything. Plus, volume metrics and momentum indicators both flash warning signs. So despite the quick bounce, a 13% drop toward $0.24 looks more likely than a sustained rally.
Large Holders Are Quietly Exiting
Some social media posts highlighted fresh whale purchases. One wallet bought 25 million ENA from Bybit. That got attention. But the broader picture looks very different.
Over the past 24 hours, total whale holdings dropped from 8.17 billion to 8.07 billion ENA. That’s a reduction of nearly 100 million tokens. At current prices, that represents about $28 million flowing out.
So the bounce happened while big holders trimmed positions. That’s a red flag. Strong rallies need conviction from large wallets. This one doesn’t have it.
Volume Shows This Rally Lacks Real Strength
On-Balance Volume (OBV) tracks whether real buying pressure supports price moves. Right now, it doesn’t.
From November 18 to November 26, ENA price made a higher high. But OBV made a lower high. That divergence means price rose faster than actual buying volume.
Moreover, OBV follows a descending trendline. Until that trendline breaks, rallies remain fragile. The current bounce fits that pattern perfectly—fast move up, weak foundation underneath.
Momentum Indicators Point to More Downside
RSI (Relative Strength Index) measures buying strength. Between November 10 and November 26, it formed a hidden bearish divergence.
Here’s what that means. ENA price made a lower high, but RSI made a higher high. Hidden bearish divergence appears inside ongoing downtrends. It signals the broader trend wants to continue lower.
Plus, remember the context. ENA dropped 54% over three months. That’s a steady downtrend. So the RSI signal suggests this downtrend isn’t finished yet.
The Critical Level Everyone’s Watching
ENA trades near $0.28 right now. But $0.29 is the key resistance level. If the token can’t break and close above $0.29, momentum stalls again.
That failure would expose $0.24 as the next support. That’s almost 13% below current prices. A clean break under $0.24 opens the path toward $0.21.
For bulls to take control, two things need to happen. First, a strong candle close above $0.29. Second, follow-through above $0.35. Only above $0.35 do the bearish signals start to weaken.
Then a move toward $0.53 becomes realistic. But that’s a big “if” given current conditions.
Why This Bounce Feels Like a Trap
Let’s connect the dots. Whales sold 100 million tokens during a 10% price bounce. Volume divergence shows weak buying support. RSI signals the downtrend wants to continue. And the token sits below key resistance at $0.29.
That combination doesn’t support a trend reversal. Instead, it looks like a relief bounce inside an ongoing downtrend. Those bounces attract late buyers who then get trapped when selling resumes.
Think about it. You’re down 54% over three months. Suddenly you see a 10% daily gain. Natural instinct says “maybe this is the bottom.” But smart money already voted with their wallets—by selling into that bounce.
What Happens Next
Watch $0.29 closely over the next few days. If ENA can’t break above that level with strong volume, expect the bounce to fail. Then $0.24 becomes the target. That’s where buyers might show up again.
If $0.24 breaks, $0.21 is next. Below that, the downtrend accelerates. Only a clean break above $0.35 changes this bearish setup. Until that happens, treat bounces as selling opportunities, not buying signals.
The data tells a clear story. Whales are leaving. Volume is weak. Momentum favors more downside. So that 10% bounce? Probably just a pit stop on the way lower.