XRP is having a rough few weeks. After touching $1.55 on March 16, the token has pulled back roughly 9% to trade around $1.40. And despite some serious buying from mid-tier whale wallets, selling pressure is still winning the short-term battle.
So what’s actually happening on-chain, and does the whale activity signal a coming reversal? Let’s dig into the data.
![Hero image showing XRP price chart with whale accumulation trend lines and key support levels highlighted in a clean, modern trading dashboard aesthetic]
XRP Holders Are Still Sitting on Losses
The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric from Glassnode paints a pretty clear picture of where XRP holders stand right now.
NUPL tracks whether the broader network is in profit or loss based on current prices versus when coins last moved. Back in late January, when XRP was trading above $2, the metric peaked near 0.22, meaning most holders were comfortably in the green.
Then things turned ugly fast. By February 5, NUPL crashed to -0.19 as prices dropped sharply. It stabilized somewhat through mid-February and March, hovering between -0.03 and -0.08.
A brief glimmer of hope showed up around March 16, when NUPL ticked back up to roughly 0.065 as price ran toward $1.55. But that recovery didn’t stick. Today the reading sits near -0.03, meaning the majority of XRP holders are still carrying unrealized losses at current prices.
For the metric to flip positive again, XRP needs a sustained move above $1.51. That’s the threshold to watch.
Whales Are Buying. But Sellers Are Louder.
Here’s where things get interesting. Despite the bearish NUPL picture, mid-tier whale wallets are quietly stacking XRP.
Wallets holding between 10 million and 100 million XRP added about 500 million coins since early March, according to Santiment data. Total balances in this tier climbed from roughly 10.77 billion to 11.09 billion XRP. At an average accumulation price near $0.61, that buying represents close to $305 million in fresh exposure.
![Chart showing mid-tier XRP whale wallet balances climbing from 10.77 billion to 11.09 billion XRP in March, with price action overlay]
Plus, these wallets haven’t meaningfully sold off since the March 16 peak. That’s a sign of conviction, not panic.
However, conviction doesn’t always win in the short term. The price chart tells a different story. Distribution, not accumulation, is driving action since the peak. Whale buying has absorbed some selling, but it hasn’t reversed the trend. Not yet.
The Key Price Levels That Matter Right Now
From a technical standpoint, XRP broke below the $1.4367 support level, which now flips to resistance. A pink distribution zone between $1.43 and $1.52 on the daily chart marks where sellers absorbed the entire March rally.
The measured move from that distribution range targets a 9.17% drop, pointing to roughly $1.38 to $1.39. XRP is already trading close to that zone at around $1.40.
So what comes next? A few key levels tell the story.
A daily close below $1.3392 would open the door to $1.2852, another 4% lower. Below that sits $1.2127, the last major floor before XRP risks printing fresh multi-month lows.
On the upside, reclaiming $1.4367 would neutralize the immediate bearish pressure. But a real reversal requires more. Getting back above $1.5119 would need both sustained whale accumulation and a broader market catalyst.
Could the Evernorth Deal Change the Game?
One potential fundamental spark is worth watching. A reported Evernorth treasury deal involves a $1 billion structure with XRP contributions from Ripple. If confirmed, that kind of institutional commitment could shift sentiment quickly.
Real institutional adoption tends to matter more to XRP’s price story than most tokens, given Ripple’s positioning in the payments space. But “if confirmed” is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that sentence. Nothing is locked in yet.
What to Watch From Here
The whale data is encouraging. Five hundred million XRP added in a few weeks, with no major selling since the March peak, suggests this group sees value at current levels. That’s not nothing.
But NUPL data shows most holders are still underwater. And price is sitting right near a key downside target zone. Those aren’t conditions that scream “immediate reversal.”
The honest read here is that XRP is at a decision point. Hold above $1.39, and the whale accumulation story has room to play out. Break below $1.3392, and sellers take control with clear downside targets below $1.28.
Watching those levels closely over the next few sessions will tell you a lot more than any one indicator can on its own.