Bitcoin dropped hard. Now it’s sitting around $86,000, down from its peak above $109,000 just months ago.
But here’s what changed. The selling pressure that drove Bitcoin down is finally breaking. Plus, institutional money patterns suggest this slide is entering its final stage. Let’s look at why Bitcoin might climb back to six figures sooner than most expect.
ETF Selling Just Lost Its Grip
Remember when Bitcoin ETF outflows crashed prices reliably? That relationship just died.
Copper, a UK-based institutional crypto custodian, tracks how sensitive Bitcoin prices are to ETF money flows. For months, when ETFs saw redemptions, Bitcoin dropped hard. That’s straightforward selling pressure at work.
Now that pattern broke. In fact, Copper’s analysis shows the 30-day correlation between ETF flows and Bitcoin returns hit one of the lowest levels all year. Translation? The market already absorbed the heavy selling. Redemptions still happen, but they barely move prices anymore.
This matters because it signals late-stage downtrend behavior. Markets don’t reverse until sellers exhaust themselves. So when selling pressure stops moving prices, you’re often near the bottom.
However, Copper warns this doesn’t guarantee an immediate bounce. Instead, it confirms the flow-driven decline is behind us. What happens next depends on whether new money enters the market.
Bitcoin Moves in Price Shelves, Not Smooth Lines
Copper discovered something interesting about how Bitcoin ETF holdings affect prices. Bitcoin doesn’t climb gradually. It jumps between distinct price zones based on how much Bitcoin ETFs own.
Their data shows three clear bands:
- $40K–$60K: Low ETF ownership zone
- $70K–$90K: Mid-level accumulation
- $100K–$120K: High ownership plateau
Think of these as stair steps. Bitcoin sits in one zone until ETF demand builds enough to push it to the next level. Moreover, these zones stay remarkably consistent over time.
Here’s where it gets practical. When ETFs first push Bitcoin into a new ownership band, the next 10 days typically see 10–13% gains. Markets adjust to the new institutional demand during this period. But once ETF holdings stabilize within that band, forward returns flatten to just 1–2%.
Right now, Bitcoin trades around $86,000 while ETF holdings sit at the top of their range. Copper says those holdings belong in the $100K–$120K price zone historically. So either ETF holdings need to drop significantly, or prices need to rise to match the ownership level.
The Only Band With Negative Returns
Bitcoin currently occupies the highest ownership band Copper tracks. That’s the $100K–$120K zone based on ETF holdings.
This band behaves differently than lower ones. In fact, it’s the only band in Copper’s entire dataset showing slightly negative average 10-day returns. Every other band shows positive or neutral forward returns once occupied.
Why does the top band underperform? Copper suggests saturation. When ETFs hold the maximum amount of Bitcoin they’re willing to own at current prices, there’s no buying pressure to push prices higher. Without sustained inflows, gravity pulls prices down slowly.
This explains a weird market behavior recently. Bitcoin sometimes rallied even on days when ETFs saw outflows. But those gains didn’t stick. Markets absorbed the selling without collapsing, yet couldn’t build momentum for a real uptrend.
So Bitcoin sits in a holding pattern. Not quite bearish enough to crash. Not bullish enough to rally. Just sideways with a slight downward drift.
What Triggers the Return to $100K
Copper sees two paths back to the $100K–$120K range. Both require significant changes in ETF flow patterns.
Path one: ETF holdings drop substantially. If institutions sell enough Bitcoin to push holdings into a lower band, that creates room for upside. Historically, when Bitcoin re-enters a lower band, it triggers 10–13% gains as the market adjusts.
Path two: Massive new inflows. If ETF buying resumes aggressively, it could push Bitcoin into an entirely new, higher ownership band. This would need sustained accumulation, not just a few good days.
Currently, neither path seems imminent. ETF flows remain weak but not collapsing. So Copper expects Bitcoin to drift sideways or slightly down until one of these scenarios plays out.
“We are in the late phase of the downtrend, but not yet in the early phase of a new uptrend,” Copper’s analysts wrote. Translation? The worst is probably over, but the recovery hasn’t started.
Europe Quietly Builds Crypto Infrastructure
While Bitcoin prices stagnate, European institutions are making moves that could matter long-term.
Keith Grose, CEO of Coinbase UK, points to structural changes in how regulated European institutions approach digital assets. One example stands out: the Czech National Bank recently tested a small, ring-fenced digital asset portfolio. That’s one of the first controlled pilots by an EU central bank.
Grose says these moves are early but meaningful. European regulators are creating clearer frameworks. Banks are experimenting with controlled exposure. Infrastructure providers are building compliant platforms.
None of this means you’ll pay for groceries with Bitcoin in London tomorrow. But it suggests Europe is laying groundwork for digital assets to become a real part of financial infrastructure. So as institutional adoption grows, demand for platforms like Coinbase grows with it.
“That makes the need for safe, compliant and transparent infrastructure more important than ever,” Grose said. And more infrastructure means more legitimate access points for institutional money to enter crypto markets.
Late-Stage Downtrend Behavior Matters
Bitcoin’s current price action looks frustrating. Not crashing, not rallying, just grinding sideways with a negative bias. But Copper’s analysis suggests this behavior is actually meaningful.
Late-stage downtrends don’t feel dramatic. Sellers exhaust themselves gradually. Prices stop responding to negative news. Market correlations break down. Then suddenly, buying appears and prices snap back.
That’s where Bitcoin sits now. ETF selling lost its power to crash prices. Bitcoin holds around $86K despite weak flows. So the market absorbed the worst of institutional redemptions without collapsing completely.
What comes next depends on whether new money enters. If ETF inflows turn positive again, Bitcoin could climb back to $100K–$120K relatively quickly. Those price zones reflect the current level of institutional ownership. So the infrastructure for higher prices already exists.
But if flows stay weak, Bitcoin drifts. No catalyst means no rally. Markets need fuel to climb, and right now that fuel is missing.