Ethereum sits at $3,000, but the chart tells a darker story. Long-term holders just ramped up selling by 191% in six days. Plus, momentum indicators flash warning signals that traders can’t ignore.
The price bounced 10% this week. That sounds promising. But dig deeper and you’ll find troubling patterns. The same group that typically stabilizes ETH during volatility is now pushing coins toward exchanges at an accelerating rate.
Hidden Momentum Problem Nobody’s Talking About
The RSI just formed a hidden bearish divergence. This happens when price makes a higher low but momentum makes a higher high during a downtrend.
Between November 18 and November 28, Ethereum’s price created exactly that pattern. The token climbed off its lows, yet momentum weakened underneath. In fact, this setup often signals a fake recovery before sellers regain control.
Technical traders recognize this divergence as one of the more reliable bearish signals. It’s subtle. Most casual observers miss it while celebrating the 10% bounce. However, the math doesn’t lie about momentum deterioration.
The broader context makes this worse. Ethereum dropped 23% over the past 30 days. So this bounce happened inside a clear downtrend. Rallies during downtrends need strong momentum to reverse the trend. This one lacks that strength.
Long-Term Wallets Are Dumping Hard
On-chain data reveals the real pressure source. The Hodler Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term holders add or remove ETH from their wallets. This month, the reading stayed deep in negative territory.
Red readings mean coins are moving from cold storage toward exchanges. That’s preparation for selling. The trend accelerated sharply in late November.
On November 22, long-term holders offloaded about 334,600 ETH. By November 28, that figure exploded to roughly 973,000 ETH. That’s a 191% increase in just six days.
Moreover, there was a local spike near 1.1 million ETH on November 26. These aren’t retail traders panic-selling. These are patient holders who accumulated during previous cycles. Their behavior shifts when they sense extended weakness ahead.
Why does this matter so much? Long-term holders typically provide stability. When prices drop, they hold tight and prevent capitulation. But when they start selling in volume, it removes a key support layer from the market.
Right now, the group that should be catching falling knives is instead throwing them toward exchanges. That creates real downside risk that price action alone doesn’t fully reveal.
Critical Support Zone Hanging by Thread
Ethereum trades right above $3,016 support. This level aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from recent moves. It’s also the lower boundary of a pennant structure forming on the daily chart.
Pennants are continuation patterns. They can technically break either direction. But context matters. When one forms during a downtrend with weakening momentum and heavy selling, the odds favor a downside break.
If $3,016 breaks, the next support sits at $2,864. That’s a 5% drop from current levels. Below that, $2,619 becomes the target. That deeper level would represent significant pain for recent buyers.
To cancel this bearish setup entirely, ETH needs to push above $3,138. That level breaks the upper pennant trendline and flips short-term bias from bearish to neutral. However, the climb gets steeper every day that long-term holders keep selling.
Why This Pattern Rarely Lies
When momentum divergence and on-chain selling pressure hit simultaneously, they create a reliable bearish cocktail. The chart shows buyers getting tired. The blockchain shows holders losing conviction.
Traders often ignore on-chain data until it’s too late. They focus on candlesticks and volume bars. But wallet behavior reveals intention before price moves reflect it. Right now, intention points down.
The 191% surge in weekly outflows over six days isn’t noise. It’s a clear trend shift among the most patient holders. These wallets survived previous bear markets. They know when to hold and when to fold.
Their current behavior suggests they expect lower prices ahead, possibly much lower. They’re not waiting to find out. Instead, they’re reducing exposure while liquidity still exists above $3,000.
What Happens Next Depends on One Thing
Ethereum’s fate hinges on whether buyers can defend $3,016. Hold that level and the pennant structure keeps options open. Break below it and momentum shifts decisively bearish.
The next few days will be crucial. If long-term selling continues at current pace, the support zone won’t last. If those outflows slow or reverse, buyers might have a chance to stabilize price and rebuild momentum.
But right now, the chart and the blockchain both point the same direction. Down. The only question is whether $3,016 holds or fails. Everything else is just noise until that question gets answered.
Watch that support level closely. Your next move probably depends on which way it breaks.