Ethereum, Solana, and XRP are bleeding. New investors face mounting losses as these once-essential holdings sink below year-start prices.
On-chain data reveals a brutal reality. More coins sit underwater now than at any point since April’s crash. Plus, the pressure keeps building as prices refuse to recover.
So what’s driving this exodus from major altcoins? And can they bounce back?
New Investors Are Getting Crushed
Glassnode’s Percent Supply in Profit metric tells a grim story. This measures how many coins last moved at prices lower than current market value. For ETH, XRP, and SOL, the numbers keep dropping since October.
Fewer coins sitting in profit means one thing. More investors are stuck holding losses. And those losses are piling up fast.
Here’s the damage as of late November. Bitcoin shows 34.91% of supply in loss. That’s manageable. But Ethereum hit 38.37% in the red. XRP sits at 36.70%. Solana? A devastating 74.84% underwater.
Think about that. Three out of four SOL holders are bleeding money. That’s not a correction—it’s a massacre.
Realized Losses Hit Seven-Month Highs
Percent Supply in Profit shows the scope. But Realized Loss reveals the actual pain. This metric tracks the total USD value of coins moved at a loss. It’s calculated as a 7-day average, highlighting recent trader activity.
As of November 25, all three major altcoins recorded their highest 7-day average Realized Loss since April. That’s when the broader market tanked earlier this year. We’re back at those levels now. Except this time, there’s no clear recovery catalyst.
Glassnode puts it bluntly. “Realized losses among new investors in major altcoins are rising, as prices continue to struggle to recover, signalling growing stress across the speculative end of the market.”
Translation? New traders who bought the dip are now watching those dips get deeper. And many are cutting losses to preserve what capital remains. That selling pressure creates a vicious cycle. More exits drive prices lower. Lower prices trigger more exits.
Meanwhile, attention shifts elsewhere. Privacy coins and neobank tokens are seeing renewed interest. Investors are chasing narratives with momentum instead of betting on beaten-down majors.
The Undervaluation Argument
Not everyone sees doom. Santiment offers a contrarian take using the MVRV ratio. Market Value to Realized Value compares current price to the average acquisition cost across all holders.
By this metric, ADA, LINK, ETH, and XRP all show significant losses for short-term and mid-term holders. Cardano holders active in the past 30 days sit at -19.2% average returns. That’s deep into what Santiment calls “extreme undervaluation” territory.
Their argument? These assets are oversold. The losses indicate potential recovery back toward fair value. When assets get this beaten down, contrarian investors start sniffing around for bargains.
But here’s the catch. “Undervalued” doesn’t mean “will recover soon.” Markets can stay irrational longer than traders can stay solvent. Especially when broader sentiment remains negative.
Bitcoin Holds the Key
So what needs to happen for large-cap altcoins to recover? Swissblock’s Altcoin Vector report identifies one critical condition. Bitcoin must stabilize.
“The final Q4 stretch could offer a turnaround if BTC stabilizes as in April, setting the stage for expansion,” the report states. History supports this. When Bitcoin finds a floor and consolidates, altcoins often follow with delayed rallies.
The problem? Bitcoin itself faces heavy selling pressure this month. The leading crypto hasn’t established clear support. Instead, it’s been choppy and uncertain. That uncertainty trickles down to altcoins with amplified volatility.
April’s pattern showed Bitcoin stabilizing first. Then altcoins recovered weeks later. If that scenario repeats, we might see relief. But Bitcoin needs to stop bleeding before altcoins can catch their breath.
Why This Time Feels Different
Previous altcoin crashes had clearer narratives. Regulatory crackdowns. Exchange failures. Macro shocks. This time? It’s more subtle. Death by a thousand cuts.
Ethereum gas fees remain high despite upgrades. Solana suffered network congestion during peak trading. XRP continues fighting legal battles even after court victories. None of these issues are new. But they’re eroding confidence incrementally.
Meanwhile, newer narratives capture mindshare. AI tokens. Real-world asset tokenization. Decentralized physical infrastructure networks. These stories feel fresh. Large-cap altcoins feel like yesterday’s news.
That perception shift matters. Crypto moves on momentum and narrative. When assets lose their story, they lose buyers. Without buyers, prices drift lower. And lower prices create the loss pressure we’re seeing now.
What Happens Next
Three scenarios seem plausible. First, Bitcoin stabilizes and altcoins follow with a relief rally. This matches April’s pattern. But it requires Bitcoin cooperation. No guarantees there.
Second, the bleeding continues into year-end. Tax-loss harvesting accelerates selling as investors book losses before 2026. This could push prices even lower before any recovery begins.
Third, a catalyst emerges that shifts sentiment. Maybe a major ETF approval. Or a regulatory breakthrough. Or unexpected institutional buying. Something to break the negative feedback loop.
Right now, the data points to continued stress. Realized losses are rising. Supply in profit is falling. New investors are exiting. These aren’t signs of imminent recovery.
Large-cap altcoins aren’t going to zero. But they’re losing the narrative war. And in crypto, narrative drives price more than fundamentals. Until these assets reclaim their stories—or Bitcoin provides a lifeline—the losses will likely mount.
The question isn’t whether ETH, SOL, and XRP are undervalued. They probably are. The question is how long they stay undervalued while better stories steal the spotlight. Nobody knows that answer. But current holders are learning patience the hard way.