Zcash survived a brutal market selloff that wiped out $2 billion in liquidations. Most altcoins collapsed. ZEC barely flinched.
That’s impressive. But the real test starts now. One specific price level will determine whether Zcash continues climbing or stalls out completely.
The Selloff Win Shows Strength Returning
Zcash trades inside a rising channel on the 12-hour chart. The upper trendline only has two touch points, making it vulnerable to breakouts if momentum improves. However, three key indicators revealed serious issues during the recent selloff.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) flagged the first warning sign. Between November 19 and 20, Zcash price made a higher low. But OBV made a lower low. That bearish divergence typically weakens trends because it shows real demand isn’t supporting the price action.
OBV touched channel support on November 20 and bounced. So it avoided a deeper breakdown. Yet ZEC needs OBV above 10.09 million to confirm stronger demand has actually returned.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) tracks large wallet inflows. This indicator has been falling since November 7. That explains why ZEC failed to break the top of the rising channel despite multiple attempts.
CMF briefly crossed above zero on November 14. That helped trigger a mid-rally bump. The indicator sits back above the zero line now. Still, a move above 0.02 would provide stronger confirmation that money flow has genuinely recovered.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) added the main risk. Between November 10 and 16, Zcash price made a higher high. But RSI made a lower high. That bearish divergence showed momentum fading while price continued rising.
This is when bears briefly took control. Moreover, it matches the OBV and CMF weakness perfectly. Now RSI moves with price again, indicating momentum support is coming back.
That’s why Zcash “barely” beat the selloff instead of flipping into a deeper reversal. The technical foundation held, but just by a thread.
Big Money Shows Signs of Re-Entry
CMF crossing back above zero matters more than most realize. This indicator measures accumulation and distribution by tracking volume-weighted price changes.
When CMF stays negative, it signals institutional money is leaving. When it turns positive, large wallets are accumulating again. The recent flip above zero suggests smart money is testing re-entry into ZEC positions.
However, the move needs confirmation. CMF above 0.02 would show sustained institutional interest rather than just a brief spike. Plus, previous attempts at crossing zero failed within days.
So the current positive reading is encouraging. But it’s not enough to guarantee the breakout yet. Bulls need CMF to stay elevated while price pushes toward resistance levels.
The Breakout War Centers on Two Critical Levels
The first major barrier sits at $766. This represents the trend-based extension zone where ZEC stalled earlier. Clearing $766 would show the first real shift in momentum has occurred.
If ZEC breaks $766 with volume, the next key target becomes $978. That level also represents the breakout possibility of the rising channel itself. Furthermore, a clean move above $978 would open the path toward four-digit prices.
On the downside, $635 provides the first support. Losing it exposes $555. A drop under $555 would push ZEC out of the rising channel completely and turn the trend neutral.
The bull-bear power indicator now shows who controls short-term strength. This metric compares price to a basic trend value. After the RSI divergence between November 10 and 16, bears briefly took control, matching the mid-channel pullback.
Yet the indicator has flipped back into positive territory now. That means bulls are in control again. Because bulls now lead on the bull-bear power indicator, the breakout war intensifies above $766.
Why $766 Matters More Than Other Resistance
Breaking $766 isn’t just about clearing a technical level. It represents the point where previous rallies stalled due to momentum loss. So getting above $766 would prove bulls have enough strength to push through resistance that stopped them before.
Plus, the upper channel trendline converges near this zone. Breaking both the horizontal resistance at $766 and the ascending trendline simultaneously would signal a strong shift in market structure.
That’s why this level matters so much. It’s not arbitrary support or resistance drawn from a single touch point. It’s where multiple technical factors intersect.
If Zcash price breaks $766 while bull-bear power stays positive, ZEC gets a real chance to attack $978. That’s the key breakout level deciding the next leg of the trend.
Volume Will Confirm or Deny The Move
Price breaking $766 alone won’t be enough. Volume needs to increase significantly on the breakout candle. Without volume confirmation, the move becomes a false breakout that quickly reverses.
OBV rising above 10.09 million would provide that confirmation. It would show real accumulation supporting the price move rather than just speculative buying that quickly fades.
CMF staying above 0.02 would add further confirmation that institutional money backs the breakout. These two indicators together would validate that the move has legs.
Without them, any break above $766 becomes suspect. Bears would likely defend $978 successfully if volume doesn’t support the initial breakout.
The Next 72 Hours Decide Everything
Zcash held firm during a market-wide liquidation event. That shows underlying strength. Yet momentum indicators barely stayed positive, and key levels remain unbroken.
The next 72 hours will determine whether ZEC pushes toward $766 and sets up the $978 breakout. Or whether momentum fades again and price retreats to test $635 support.
Bulls control the bull-bear power indicator now. CMF crossed back above zero. RSI realigned with price. Those factors favor an upside attempt.
But the technical damage from the bearish divergences hasn’t fully healed yet. OBV needs to confirm demand is real. CMF needs to stay elevated. Volume needs to increase on any breakout attempt.
If those conditions align above $766, Zcash could finally break the rising channel and target $978. That would open the path to four-digit prices and signal a major trend shift.
If they don’t align, expect consolidation between $635 and $766 to continue. The breakout war hasn’t been won yet. Zcash barely survived the first battle. The decisive fight still lies ahead.