Bitcoin just hit its highest price in over two months. And the catalyst might surprise you.
Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz under ceasefire terms sparked a broad risk-on wave across equities and crypto. Bitcoin climbed above $78,000 on Friday, fueled by a confirmed double-bottom breakout and a wave of short liquidations. Now traders are watching one number obsessively: $80,000.
But getting there isn’t guaranteed. Analysts are sharply divided, and the technical picture is more complicated than the headlines suggest.
The Double-Bottom Breakout Driving Friday’s Rally
Bitcoin was trading around $77,922 as of Friday, just below the $80,000 psychological level last tested on January 31, 2026.
The move follows a technical setup that traders have been tracking for weeks. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC has held above the double-bottom formation top near $73,000, a level that previously acted as resistance and has now flipped to support.
“Bitcoin’s progression on the Daily timeframe has been promising, enabling price to maintain itself above the Double Bottom formation top of ~$73,000… it is the upcoming Weekly Close that will be most important to watch for,” Rekt Capital wrote.
However, he was quick to add a caution. A similar setup back in March ended with an upside wick and a quick rejection. So a clean weekly close above current levels matters more than any single day’s price action.
Short Sellers Got Burned Fast
The push past $76,000 didn’t just excite bulls. It triggered a short squeeze that caught a lot of traders off guard.
According to Coinglass data, nearly $100 million in short positions were liquidated within a single hour on Friday. Trader Ted Pillows had previously flagged $76,000 as the critical reclaim level. Once price broke through, the rush to cover shorts added fuel to the rally.
Ted wasn’t just watching, though. He disclosed plans to go short himself near the $79,000 to $80,000 zone. His reasoning? The last two local tops followed a pattern where price briefly took out capitulation candle highs before reversing sharply.
“The key zone for Bitcoin here is $76,000 and a reclaim could push BTC towards the $78,000–$80,000 zone. This is where I’ll go short on Bitcoin,” Ted wrote.
So the same level bulls are targeting is exactly where experienced traders are setting up their shorts. That tension makes $80,000 one of the most contested price zones in recent memory.
Bear Market Warning Signs Haven’t Gone Away
Here’s where optimism runs into a wall. Several serious macro headwinds are still hanging over Bitcoin’s price.
Rekt Capital argues that for BTC to build genuine sustained momentum, it would need to reclaim $82,500 and break a multi-month series of lower highs. History suggests that’s a tall order. He estimates roughly six months of bear market structure may still remain.
The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA) sits directly in Bitcoin’s current price path. During bear markets, this indicator tends to act as resistance rather than support. Plus, Bitcoin is clustering beneath a macro triangle it broke down from months ago. In 2014, a nearly identical pattern resolved through distribution to the downside.
QCP Group echoed that caution. Their derivatives desks still favor downside protection. The current rally looks spot-driven and fragile rather than a genuine structural trend change.
Prediction market Kalshi now prices approximately a 40% chance that BTC hits $80,000 this month. That means the market itself sees it as more likely than not that the rally stalls before breaking through.
On-Chain Data Sends Mixed Signals
On-chain metrics paint a nuanced picture. Some indicators look constructive. Others raise flags worth paying attention to.
CryptoQuant analyst Woo Mink Yu flagged the Bitcoin Combined Market Index (BCMI), which has dropped into the 0.2 to 0.3 range. Historically, this zone has marked deep undervaluation and preceded major recoveries.
“We are entering a ‘Value-Accumulation Zone.’ The data suggests the downside is becoming limited compared to the long-term upside. However, wait for price stabilisation to confirm the index’s bottom signal,” Woo Mink Yu wrote.
On the positive side, Binance open interest has actually fallen even as price climbed. That matters. A rally built on spot demand rather than leveraged speculation is far less vulnerable to sudden liquidation cascades. Exchange inflows on Binance have also dropped to levels not seen since 2020, suggesting most holders prefer to hold rather than sell into strength.
But there’s a red flag worth watching. Separate CryptoQuant data shows roughly 11,000 BTC per hour moving to exchanges this week. That’s the highest rate since December 2025. Large holders may be quietly positioning to distribute if the rally pushes higher.
What Needs to Happen Next
Friday’s daily close is the immediate test. A clean close above $77,000 strengthens the case for a genuine push toward $80,000. A rejection here extends the pattern of failed breakouts that has defined much of Bitcoin’s recent history.
Beyond that, the weekly close is what Rekt Capital and most serious analysts are watching most closely. Even if BTC briefly touches $80,000 over the weekend, a weekly close below $77,000 would cast doubt on the entire breakout narrative.
The Strait of Hormuz reopening provided a macro tailwind that few predicted. But tailwinds don’t override technical resistance or reset bear market structure. Bitcoin’s next few days will reveal whether this rally has real legs or becomes another entry in a long list of near-misses below the critical $80,000 threshold.
The data is mixed. The signals are competing. And the $80,000 level is exactly where bulls and bears are both placing their bets.